hayward and san andreas fault

The Northern San Andreas Fault Zone The region surrounding the 1906 rupture zone includes the seismicity associated with the major 1838 and 1906 San Andreas, 1868 Hayward, and 1989 Loma Prietaearthquakes. The highway paralleling the lakes to the left is Interstate 280, ``the most beautiful urban highway in the United States''. Since then, research has indicated that the likelihood of a Hayward quake is greater and more threatening to the 7 million Bay Area residents than a San Andreas … It is similar to riding in the back of a pick-up truck which accelerates very quickly and stops suddenly. The 150th anniversary of the 1868 earthquake, and all historical earthquake anniversaries, are opportunities to remind people that we live in earthquake country and Earthquake country just got a little scarier. According to a new study, the Hayward fault line that runs under Oakland, California is believed to be more dangerous than the infamous San Andreas fault line that spans Southern California.. The SAFZ started moving about 28-30 million years ago and has horizontally slipped (transform motion) a total of about 300-350 km (186-220 mi)since it began moving. (Credit: Kate Scharer, USGS. Its last major rupture occurred in 1868, during California's frontier days, and was the original "Great San Francisco Earthquake" until 1906.. Thick red lines show the extent of historic ruptures. Posted April 19, 2018, under Blog. The USGS also has a webpage that analyzes what will happen if a 7.0 earthquake has its epicenter in Oakland or Fremont. HAYWARD FAULT RUNNING THROUGH CENTER OF UC BERKELEY SPORTS STADIUM.. MOVEMENT OF EARTH SHOWING HOW EARTHQUAKES DAMAGE HOUSES. Hayward Bay Fault Could Be More Dangerous Than San Andreas: It’s a “Ticking Time Bomb” The following video is brought to you courtesy of the DAHBOO77 YouTube Channel. 510-548-1111. . Scientists say the region appears to be overdue for a significant quake. The results of this study indicate that this section of the San Andreas Fault is likely to have a large earthquake in the not-too-distant future. The Hayward Fault is a "tectonic time bomb, due any time for another magnitude 6.8 to 7.0 earthquake," according to a 2008 USGS report. A retrofit prevents this kind of movement. Posted April 19, 2018, under Blog. . This website is intended to help clients of Bay Area Retrofit to understand their retrofit proposals. 1 A). Where does the information come from? The San Andreas Fault is a continental transform fault that extends roughly 1,200 kilometers (750 mi) through California. The red line is traced on a fault that offsets the layers. The new San Pablo Bay link between the Rodgers Creek Fault (which extends out of the image to the upper left to Santa Rosa) and the Hayward fault (which joins the Calaveras Fault out of the image to the lower right) is orange. Bay Area Retrofit does not recommend performing a retrofit without the guidance and supervision of experienced and knowledgeable retrofit professionals, and is not responsible for costly errors, injuries, or earthquake damage that result from such attempts. Contractor's License Board. We test this method on both the Hayward Fault and San Andreas Fault at Parkfield, California. (Public domain.). Bond #SC6334450 This means that earthquakes as large as M=7.4 are possible on both sides of San Francisco Bay, rather than just on the San Andreas, as we had thought before. The Hayward fault in the San Francisco Bay area runs through a densely-populated area, so it has been studied quite a bit.The most recent major earthquake on this fault was approximately M6.9 and occurred in 1868. Copyright © 2020 Bay Area Retrofit. The San Andreas has long been the quake fault California fears the most. The Hayward fault is due for another large earthquake very soon. and 70? Four urban areas of the San Andreas Fault System in Northern California have accumulated a sufficient amount of energy to produce major earthquakes, a new study finds. According to government statistics, ab even larger earthquake on the entire Hayward fault plus the already linked Calaveras Fault would reach magnitude 7.3. (Photo from: Trulia) In California, when most people think about faults, their thoughts are immediately drawn to the San Andreas, and to a lesser extent, the Hayward Fault. The study concluded that there is 33% likelihood of a surface-rupturing earthquake within the next 30 years. Map of faults in northern California. At that location, the record is about 1000 years long, and in that time period, there are about 9 large earthquakes recorded in the sediments, including the 1857 rupture. Dislocation models of the surface deformation adjacent to the Hayward fault measured with the global positioning system and interferometric synthetic aperture radar favor creep at ∼7 millimeters per year to the bottom of the seismogenic zone along a ∼20-kilometer-long northern fault segment. For a 12-minute video concerning the Hayward Fault, see the KQED documentary Predictable Peril. The San Francisco Bay area is crossed by several right-lateral strike-slip faults of the San Andreas fault zone. West of the San Andreas fault, the 400-kilometer-long San Gregorio-Hosgri fault extends primarily offshore between Point Conception and Bolinas, and sits within 3 nautical miles (in state waters) of the Diablo Canyon Power Plant. Many of the sites paleoseismologists have been studying are along key sections of the SAFZ where there is a large population or major infrastructure that would be affected by a large earthquake in the future. Scientists are working to improve forecasts that estimate how often future earthquakes will occur and how much the ground will shake so engineers and planners will know where to focus efforts to mitigate the effects of damaging earthquakes. Be sure and click the Map View and watch the videos. And what does it mean? The Hayward fault is a 90 kilometer long crack in the Earth's crust that travels through the San Francisco Bay area. San Jose, Sunnyvale, Fremont, Oakland, Berkeley and Surrounding Areas First, let's zoom out and look at the big picture. Liability Ins PCA 1045011 It runs through densely populated areas, including Richmond, El Cerrito, Berkeley, Oakland, San Leandro, Castro Valley, Hayward, Union City, Fremont, and San Jose. In particular, we need to design buildings and infrastructure to be able to withstand the earthquake shaking or be easily repaired. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake is estimated to have been in the 7.8 range (and possibly even larger.) The Maacama fault is the northward continuation of the Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault system in northern California. Bold numbers show the average time between big earthquakes, determined at paleoseismic sites (triangles). The entire San Andreas fault system is more than 800 miles long and extends to depths of at least 10 miles within the Earth. This means that earthquakes as large as M=7.4 are possible on both sides of San Francisco Bay, rather than just on the San Andreas, as we had thought before. When the ground accelerates the house and foundation go with it. Observations in the trenches along with radiocarbon dating of charcoal, wood chips, and small plant remains, combined with a reevaluation of three previously-studied nearby paleoseismic sites revealed a variation in seismic activity in the past. It has an average repeat cycle of 140 years. Analysis of a geodetic network of 115 lines crossing the San Andreas, Hayward, and Calaveras faults in the vicinity of San Francisco Bay and measured repeatedly between 1970 and 1980 has revealed details about the accommodation of relative plate motion in this area. The Hayward Fault is a "tectonic time bomb, due any time for another magnitude 6.8 to 7.0 earthquake," according to a 2008 USGS report. The paleoseismic data on different parts of the San Andreas Fault Zone are all telling us that some sections appear to be past the average, or "overdue" for a significant earthquake. Although the region was sparsely populated, the quake on the Hayward Fault was one of the most destructive in California’s history. IN TERMS OF DAMAGE THE HAYWARD AND SAN ANDREAS FAULT EARTHQUAKES WILL BE THE LARGEST EARTHQUAKES IN HISTORY. The faults shown here are represented by simple lines which do not convey how complicated they can be. The New Yorker published an article, “The Really Big One,” which warns that the Cascadia Fault is even more dangerous than the Hayward Fault. Since then, nearly three million people have moved next to the Hayward fault with little regard for its earthquake potential. The Hayward Fault Zone is a geologic fault zone capable of generating destructive earthquakes. A paleoseismic study in 2007 at Tyson’s Lagoon (now a BART station) found evidence for 12 paleoearthquakes (including the historical 1868 earthquake) with an average time between earthquakes of about 160 years. 408-664-6355 No data point selected. No one can predict earthquakes, so what does the science really say? San Andreas. The San Andreas Fault is the most famous fault in the world. Like the Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989, the San Andreas Fault was responsible for … The Hayward fault dataset includes 1489 earthquakes with magnitudes from … The most striking result is that the deformation is not uniformly distributed across the area. The fault has been creeping about 4.6 mm/yr (0.2 inches/yr) for the last several decades, but that is only half of the long-term slip rate, so stress is building upon this fault. The scariest scenario for the next major earthquake may […] We have identified 4 common types of house and have written web pages and made videos to show you how to retrofit them. The San Andreas fault zone has been a very significant source of major California earthquakes. At the time, it was known as the 'great San Francisco quake' (this was before the infamous 1906 quake, produced by the San Andreas fault), and it produced massive amounts of damage and several people lost their lives. Instead, radiocarbon dating provides the age of the most recent earthquake and six more that occurred since about 800 A.D. A paleoseismology site in Wrightwood, CA has been studied by several scientists, and recently (in 2010) the detailed data from multiple studies were joined together to create a single timeline. The city of Ukiah, in Northern California sits right next to the Maacama Fault, which is capable of M=7.5 earthquakes and poses a significant threat to the region. Here is the graphic history of earthquakes on the Hayward fault. This web page tries to compile the most up-to-date information in one place. Let’s imagine for a minute that we know where, how large, and when an earthquake will be. The SAFZ is the main part of the boundary between the Pacific tectonic plate on the west side and the North American plate on the east side. San Francisco Bay Area Earthquakes: The Hayward and San Andreas Faults are probably the most studied earthquake faults in the world, so a lot is known about them. Each house is unique. In detail, the fault is a complex zone of crushed and broken rock from a few hundred feet to a mile wide. Click on a pin on the map to see more information. Its last major rupture occurred in 1868, during California's frontier days, and was the original "Great San Francisco Earthquake" until 1906.. The most recent major earthquake on this fault was approximately M6.9 and occurred in 1868. Geographic Names Information System (GNIS), Mapping, Remote Sensing, and Geospatial Data, Earthquake Outlook for the San Francisco Bay Region 2014—2043, Map of active faults and historic ruptures in California, New Information About the San Andreas Fault, Catching Glimpses of Centuries-Old Earthquakes, Science of the New Madrid Seismic Zone - Paleoseismology, UCERF3: A New Earthquake Forecast for California’s Complex Fault System. A pair of major earthquakes occurred on the central to southern region, where the 1857 faulting overlapped the 1812 earthquake faulting. Comparing the data from sites like Wrightwood and Frazier Mountain, earthquake scientists are working to understand the pattern of large earthquakes – asking questions such as how typical was the large (M7.9) earthquake in 1857? Prior to 1300, the intervals are shorter, about 200 years. Since we have exceeded the average, many people use the term “overdue,” but it’s more complicated than that. (Public domain.). The San Andreas Fault is a crack in the Earth's crust in California, some 680 miles long. On October 21, 1868, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck the San Francisco Bay area. Note that because the magnitude scale is a log scale, there is about a 25-fold difference in the energy released by these different earthquakes. ?, respectively, and persist to the base of the crust. (Play Video) San Francisco Bay Area Earthquakes: The Hayward and San Andreas Faults are probably the most studied earthquake faults in the world, so a lot is known about them. The author Kathryn Schultz writes “When the next very big earthquake hits, the northwest edge of the continent, from California to Canada and the continental shelf to the Cascades, will drop by as much as six feet and rebound thirty to a hundred feet to the west . Along the San Francisco peninsula no detectable slip occurs (less than 1.5 mm/yr) at the surface, but appreciable strain is accumulating. Four urban areas of the San Andreas Fault System in Northern California have accumulated a sufficient amount of energy to produce major earthquakes, a new study finds. Our Influence on Retrofit Building Codes, Shear Transfer Ties No Cripple Wall Retrofits, Brick Foundations and Earthquake Retrofitting, Workers’ Compensation and Liability Insurance. The recurrence intervals (times between earthquakes) at Wrightwood are more regular than clustered (determined by a mathematical analysis), and only four times in the past has the interval between two major earthquakes been longer than the current interval (since 1857). With about 45 years between the historic earthquakes but about 160 years since the last one, it is clear that the fault does not behave like a clock with a regular beat. The fault divides into three segments, each with different characteristics and a different degree of earthquake risk. The stuck section slips, and the edge of each block catches up to the rest of the plate. However, the edges of the blocks, the faults themselves, are stuck and only move where there is a large earthquake (some faults creep a little bit, but most are locked). The Hazel Dell site near Corralitos, CA was trenched in 2013 to characterize the Santa Cruz Mountains section of the San Andreas Fault. The last major earthquake that the Hayward fault produced was in 1868. Other articles where Hayward Fault is discussed: California: Relief: The Hayward Fault in the San Francisco Bay Area and the San Gabriel fault zone in metropolitan Los Angeles have produced several major earthquakes, though the destructive quake centred in the Los Angeles suburb of Northridge in 1994 occurred along one of the San Andreas’s larger… The slip rate near the San Andreas fault is … IT IS NOT INTENDED AS A GUIDE FOR DIY RETROFITS. The San Andreas fault system (SAFS) consists of over a dozen faults that accommodate motion between the North American and Pacific Plates (Fig. The faults are boundaries between blocks, and each block is constantly moving, which we can see by analyzing GPS (Global Positioning System) data. You might think that would be good because then you could leave the area beforehand and then return after the earthquake. San Jose earthquake risk is caused by three connected faults: Hayward, Calaveras, and San Andreas. It is parallel to and east of its more famous (and much longer) sister fault, the San Andreas Fault. Fault-plane reflections reveal that two of these faults, the San Andreas and Hayward, dip toward each other below seismogenic depths at 60?? As you returned to your home, you would probably see damaged and collapsed buildings and bridges, broken pipes and snapped power lines and scorched remains of fires. The San Francisco Bay area is crossed by several right-lateral strike-slip faults of the San Andreas fault zone. CHART SHOWING THE HISTORY OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES ALONG THE CASCADIA EARTHQUAKE TIME LINE, MIRROR IMAGE COMPARISON BETWEEN THE CASCADIA FAULT SHOWN ON THE RIGHT AND THE SUMATRA EARTHQUAKE ON THE LEFT THAT KILLED OVER 260,000 PEOPLE. Exposure of the San Andreas Fault in a trench. The similar magnitude 2011 Tohoku 9.0 earthquake that caused the Fukushima nuclear disaster is discussed in this 3-minute video. In other words, in 11 more years we will have exceeded the historic maximum span of 160 years (U.C. The San Andreas Fault is locked in many places; much of its energy is released in the form of earthquakes. Scientists have a good big picture understanding of the San Andreas Fault Zone (SAFZ). The data show that at many places along the San Andreas Fault, we have gone past the average time between large earthquakes. It forms the tectonic boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate, and its motion is right-lateral strike-slip (horizontal). The Hayward Fault splinters from the Calaveras Fault, which itself is an offshoot of the It contains a lot of information, links, and videos to explore and you will learn practically everything there is to know if you study this page. The resulting 3000-year record includes 29 surface-rupturing earthquakes. Since then, research has indicated that the likelihood of a Hayward quake is greater and more threatening to the 7 million Bay Area residents than a San Andreas … From 1812 to 1906 it generated four major earthquakes of M 7 or larger in two pairs on two major portions of the fault. CHART SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE AND DATES OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN CALIFORNIA. All rights reserved. The fault has been creeping about 4.6 mm/yr (0.2 inches/yr) for the last several decades, but that is only half of the long-term slip rate, so stress is building upon this fault. The Hayward Fault. Cartoon sketch of the Pacific Plate-North American Plate boundary showing the San Andreas Fault. The fault marks the boundary between the North American and Pacific lithospheric plates. Bold numbers show the average time between big earthquakes, determined at paleoseismic sites (triangles). CBS News did a short but excellent documentary on the huge impact a rupture of the Cascadia Fault will have on our country. And what does it mean? Fault-plane reflections reveal that two of these faults, the San Andreas and Hayward, dip toward each other below seismogenic depths at 60° and 70°, respectively, and persist to the base of the crust. In 2014, a paleoseismology site at Hael Creek on the Maacama fault reiterated the results found on the Hayward fault to the south – creeping with infrequent large earthquakes, and a large one expected in the not-too-distant future. Let's start in southern California and work our way north. The Hayward Fault is an offset of the San Andreas Fault system that dominates the landforms of eastern San Francisco Bay. The San Andreas Fault and 6 other significant fault zones are present in the Bay Area: the Calaveras, Concord-Green Valley, Greenville, Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and San Gregorio Faults. As of 2020 it has been 151 years since the last big earthquake in 1868. Public domain.). The Hayward fault slips in large earthquakes and by aseismic creep observed along its surface trace. The four areas singled out in the study are: Hayward, Rodgers Creek, northern Calaveras and Green Valley. Or is the size of the 1812 earthquake (~M7.1) more common? Near fault shear strain rates are 0.6 ± 0.1 μstrain/yr (engineering) with direction N47°W ± 9. Its notoriety comes partly from the disastrous 1906 San Francisco earthquake, but rather more importantly because it passes through California, a highly-populated state that is frequently in the news.And with many research institutions dedicated to studying such an accessible fault, the SAF has become a household name. On page 10 of Seismic Behavior of Level and Stepped Cripple Walls by Y. H. Chai, it states, “More than half of the $40 billion dollar property losses in the Northridge Earthquake were due to failures of wood frame construction, primarily as a result of the damage or collapse of residential, single-family homes ……………..”  Damage from the Hayward Fault will greatly exceed this. Using the forecasts, we can properly engineer structures, plan for earthquake response, and be prepared at home to make a big difference in the impact of a significant earthquake. This fault is about 74 mi (119 km) long, situated mainly along the western base of the hills on the east side of San Francisco Bay. The Hayward fault is a 90 kilometer long crack in the Earth's crust that travels through the San Francisco Bay area. New studies farther to the northwest along the Peninsula section of the San Andreas Fault also show a long interval between the 1906 earthquake and the previous earthquake, which occurred around 1300. To see the full scale of the devastation when that tsunami recedes, you would need to be in the international space station.”  FEMA conservatively anticipates a death toll of 13,000. Where does the information come from? Careful analysis of the age of the earthquakes, including the uncertainties in radiocarbon dating (see Determining the Age of a Paleoearthquake in Introduction to Paleoseismology), showed that the average time between earthquakes is about 100 years. The In 1836 there was a large earthquake but the larges was felt on October 21, 1868. The corrosion problem of ACQ treated lumber. The Hayward Fault runs south through densely populated areas, including the cities of Richmond, El Cerrito, Berkeley, Oakland, San Leandro, Hayward, Union city, Fremont, and San Jose. What we do know is that California is "earthquake country" and we need to be prepared. The Hayward Fault. The San Andreas has long been the quake fault California fears the most. 1 B). Bay Area Retrofit assumes no responsibility or liability for use by homeowners, contractors, engineers, or anyone else of the information provided on this site. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake is estimated to have been in the 7.8 range (and possibly even larger.) Retrofit design is based on many factors. Basically, because it’s a big fault that is close to some big cities. The Calaveras Fault is a major branch of the San Andreas Fault System that is located in northern California in the San Francisco Bay Area.Activity on the different segments of the fault includes moderate and large earthquakes as well as aseismic creep.The last large event was the 1984 Morgan Hill event and the last moderate earthquake was the 2007 Alum Rock event. The “zone” part of the name means it’s a system with the main fault and many sub-parallel faults that all together take up the motion between the two plates. The San Andreas and Cascadia fault have a potentially deadlier counterpart lurking in the East Bay region of Northern California. ...and thank-you to the Facebook poster who gave us the idea for the title! This in turn can cause the Hayward Fault to rupture. Public domain.). (See Earthquake Outlook for the San Francisco Bay Region 2014—2043). The Hayward fault in the San Francisco Bay area runs through a densely-populated area, so it has been studied quite a bit.The most recent major earthquake on this fault was approximately M6.9 and occurred in 1868. The plate is moving slowly all the time, but the edges move in fits and starts. According to the Association of Bay Area Governments the Hayward Fault will cause $165 billion in damage when it ruptures. However, creep occurs in spots along the Hayward Fault. The slip rate near the San Andreas fault is … The earthquake will cause $90.4 billion damage to residential buildings and 96.4 to commercial buildings. About 100 km to the northwest along the fault another site at Frazier Mountain has been investigated. Scientists say the region appears to be overdue for a significant quake. Investigating Past Earthquakes to Inform the Future. New Study Finds Hayward Fault More Dangerous Than San Andreas. According to a new study, the Hayward fault line that runs under Oakland, California is believed to be more dangerous than the infamous San Andreas fault line that spans Southern California.. This web page tries to compile the most up-to-date information in one place. The Hayward Fault is 40 miles long and about 8 miles deep and trends along the east side of San Francisco Bay. The Hayward Fault Zone is located in northern California in the San Francisco Bay Area. The horizontal colored lines highlight different layers of sediment. This fault regularly generates 9.0 temblors similar to the 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami that killed over 227,000 people in Indonesia and India. The San Andreas Fault is locked in many places; much of its energy is released in the form of earthquakes. The Hayward Fault. This shows that the average time between earthquakes includes some intervals that are short and some intervals that are long. The threat to San Francisco from the Hayward fault was recognized by A. C. Lawson in 1908 in Report of the State Earthquake Commission, The California earthquake of April 18, 1906, p. 447: "The foot of Market Street, San Francisco, is about midway between the San Andreas rift and the fault scarp upon which movement occurred in 1868. Personally I like the following 50 minute BBC documentary on the Cascadia Fault which triggers the San Andreas Fault 75% of the time when it ruptures. (Credit: Kate Scharer, USGS. The new San Pablo Bay link between the Rodgers Creek Fault (which extends out of the image to the upper left to Santa Rosa) and the Hayward fault (which joins the Calaveras Fault out of the image to the lower right) is orange. The ground consistently moves a few millimeters each year, pulling apart sidewalks, pipelines and other structures that sit astride the fault. The relative motion between these two tectonic plates is 50 mm/yr (about 2 inches/yr), but that rate is distributed across all the faults that are part of the SAFZ. But focusing only on avoiding an earthquake doesn’t address most of the effects from the shaking. It forms the tectonic boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate, and its motion is right-lateral strike-slip (horizontal). Scientists are now saying that the “Big One” in California may not be caused by the San Andreas fault line, but by the Hayward Bay fault line. The San Andreas Fault is a continental transform fault that extends roughly 1,200 kilometers (750 mi) through California. Along the San Francisco peninsula no detectable slip occurs (less than 1.5 mm/yr) at the surface, but appreciable strain is accumulating. It contains a lot of information, links, and videos to explore and you will learn practically everything there is to know if you study this page. The Hayward Fault is 40 miles long and about 8 miles deep and trends along the east side of San Francisco Bay. San Francisco Bay Area Earthquakes: The Hayward and San Andreas Faults are probably the most studied earthquake faults in the world, so a lot is known about them. But the data can’t be used to make predictions: we do not understand earthquakes well enough to know exactly where the next earthquake will occur, what the magnitude will be, or exactly when it will happen. Near fault shear strain rates are 0.6 ± 0.1 μstrain/yr (engineering) with direction N47°W ± 9. Sorry for posting all the documentaries and I can’t really tell you which one is best. Homeowner’s Guide to Seismic Retrofitting. Can provide felt intensities t really tell you which one is overdue ” on Hayward... The North American Plate, and persist to the Salton Sea, earthquakes happen infrequently, about 200 years kilometers. 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Deformation is not intended as a GUIDE for DIY RETROFITS Comp RWCC64393236 Contractors Lic 558462... Of earthquakes on the huge impact a rupture of the fault is 40 long! Predictable Peril moved next to the Facebook poster who gave us the for... Videos to show you how to retrofit them Coast section of the Francisco! Idea for the title big earthquake in 1868 a surface-rupturing earthquake within the next years. That the “ big one is best magnitude 2011 Tohoku 9.0 earthquake that caused the Fukushima disaster... The Bay area of M 7 or larger in two pairs on two major portions the... Overdue, ” but it ’ s imagine for a 12-minute video concerning Hayward! And Carol Prentice, U.S. Geological Survey was in 1868 fault regularly generates 9.0 temblors to! Occurs in spots along the fault suggest an average recurrence interval of 200-300 years house wants to on... Cbs News did a short but excellent documentary on the Hayward fault 12-minute video concerning the fault... Crossed by several right-lateral strike-slip faults of the Pacific Plate and the edge of each block catches to! A shorter eye-opening 7-minute TV clip on the central to southern region, the... 1906 San Francisco Bay area but it ’ s imagine for a significant.. Perspective on how much devastation this is compared to other large earthquakes California... Consistently moves a few millimeters each year, pulling apart sidewalks, pipelines and other that., U.S. Geological Survey more complicated than that was considered the “great earthquake” until the San has! Until the San Andreas fault zone populated, the quake on the central to southern,...

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